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No Blood, Just Sweat: Coalition left with blue balls after ALP’S non-spill spill

After weeks of speculation, the long-simmering leadership tensions between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd came to a head again on Thursday, March 21st. There had been intense controversy in Labor ranks about the leadership in the past few weeks, following a series of devastating opinion polls, the botched media law reforms and the disastrous Western Australian election. In the wake of repeated calls by the media and some caucus members for a leadership challenge, it was Labor frontbencher and party elder Simon Crean who eventually forced the Prime Minister’s hand.

Crean called former PM Kevin Rudd “disloyal” in the wake of the February 2012 leadership challenge, which Rudd lost 71-31. On Thursday his colours were demonstrably different. In his first press conference, he implored the Labor party to focus on presenting a unified front, and later announced his intention to request that Gillard declare the leadership and deputy leadership of the party vacant. The presumed challenge to Julia Gillard was to come in the form of Kevin Rudd for the leadership, and Simon Crean for the deputy leadership.

Yet mere hours later, it was all over. Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister and Wayne Swan is still Deputy Prime Minister. Neither of them had even been forced to a vote.

What happened is simple. Julia Gillard announced in Question Time that at 4:30pm the position of leader and deputy leader of the Australian Labor Party would be vacant. This triggered much speculation on whether ex-PM Kevin Rudd would challenge Gillard for the second time since she deposed him in 2010. Many polls have placed Kevin Rudd’s personal popularity ahead of Gillard’s, suggesting that a switch to Rudd before the election could save the ALP from electoral oblivion. However when push came to shove, Rudd declined to even nominate for the leadership. He stated that he could only be convinced to return to the leadership if his colleagues were “drafting [him] to return” and if the position was vacant. The challenge, therefore, was moot.

What this means for the ALP in the lead up to the election is far more complex.  Talk of leadership tensions within the ALP has never really eased since the 2010 spill which installed Gillard. The minority government which resulted from the 2010 federal election has fanned those flames, with Tony Abbott questioning the legitimacy of the Government and referring to himself as the “alternative PM”.

Julia Gillard has now won three leadership ballots and has successfully negotiated the challenges of minority government which is looking increasingly like it will run its full term. She has also seen the development of critical legislation such as the National Disability Insurance Scheme, the Minerals Rent Resource Tax, the Emissions Trading Scheme, the National Broadband Network, and a national Paid Parental Leave scheme.

It is important not to underestimate the task which Gillard has faced; in order to pass every single piece of legislation, the Government has been required to negotiate with six independents and one Greens Member of Parliament.  In its first year alone, the Gillard Government passed 185 bills, compared to the Howard Government’s 108 in a similar timeframe. In spite of her achievements, Gillard remains extremely unpopular. The ALP’s two party preferred vote (2PP) has languished below 35% for the vast majority of its second term. The culture within the ALP appears disorganized and childish at best, and completely incompetent at worst.

Despite Gillard going unchallenged, there has been further turmoil in the ALP ranks as many Rudd supporters reassess their positions in the party. Simon Crean has been stripped of his Ministry by Gillard, with Chief Whip Joel Fitzgibbon and Whips Ed Husic and Janelle Saffrin choosing to follow him to the backbenches. Immigration Minister Chris Bowen, Energy Minister Martin Ferguson and Human Services Minister Kim Carr have also resigned their ministries. The internal disunity which has plagued the ALP since 2010 is clearly far from abating, and will almost certainly continue in the lead up to the 2013 election if the Government’s disastrous standing in the polls does not improve. This focus on leadership and polling does little to improve the public image of a government who already appears to have forgotten about policy in its internal race for power.

Unless the ALP finds the internal unity and the focus on policy that it has been lacking, then it is certain to head for electoral defeat on par with the shocking results in Queensland and Western Australia. A defeat of this magnitude would likely result in the party spending many years in opposition as it would struggle to rebuild its brand and to regain public trust in its ability to govern.

Lot's Wife Editors

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