Did he jump or was he pushed? Was Frankston MP Geoff Shaw’s
resignation to the cross bench a calculated political move to destabilise
Baillieu? Or was he simply fed up with the Premier’s inability or
unwillingness to help him fulfil electoral promises to his electorate? Why
is Geoff Shaw seemingly no longer under investigation for rorting his
government car? And who the hell is Denis Napthine? These are some
of the many questions surrounding the resignation of Premier Ted Bailieu
on March 6.
To begin to answer these questions, a brief summary is needed.
Baillieu’s Coalition Government, before his resignation, held power in
the Legislative Assembly by an incredibly slim margin. This, coupled with
his evident reluctance to assert himself publicly and his timidity as leader,
meant that the time was right for some kind of leadership stoush. Geoff
Shaw’s odd conduct in resigning from the parliamentary Liberal Party was
enough to destabilise Baillieu, resulting in his resignation. Whether there
was motive behind Shaw’s conduct is unclear, as is what happened next.
Planning Minister Matthew Guy was widely regarded as the most likely
successor, but it was Dennis Napthine who emerged from the party room
as the newly-minted Premier of Victoria.
Some may remember Dr Napthine from his brief stint as Opposition
Leader after the defeat of the Liberal Party in the 1999 election, and Jeff
Kennett’s subsequent resignation. Under Napthine, the Opposition fell
apart in the polls, and struggled to gain ground against the governing
Labor Party. Under somewhat similar circumstances, Robert Doyle
challenged Napthine for the leadership of the Party, successfully ousting
him and contesting the 2002 election. For all of the theatrics, Doyle
managed to lose spectacularly, delivering the Victorian Liberal Party’s
worst-ever electoral loss. Soon after, Doyle’s Opposition imploded, with
high-profile resignations including his Chief of Staff Ron Wilson and
Director of Communications Rob Clancy. We all know where this is
going, right? Doyle eventually resigned, perhaps at the behest of other
senior party members, as his personal approval rating dropped to a rather
forlorn 15%. He was succeeded by our man Ted Baillieu, completing this
bizarre little circle.
You are probably now asking why the Liberals would choose to revert
to a former Opposition leader so unpopular that he never even made it to
an election, rather than going with the more popular choice of Matthew
Guy, especially as he seemed to be free of the sort of baggage that
Napthine has in spades. There is the fact that Guy sits in the upper house,
whereas leaders traditionally are sourced from the lower house. But if you
ask me, the decision probably has more to do with the allegations that
surfaced days before Ted Baillieu’s resignation, detailing Matthew Guy’s
secret meetings with developers in return for a party donation of around
$10,000. Whether or not these accusations are true is irrelevant. Far more
pertinent is the fact that after Geoff Shaw’s very public fall from grace, the
Liberal Party is obviously seeking to avoid any more controversy, hoping
to weather the storm until the waters calm.
But the question remains; why Napthine? Here, I think, is the crux
of the discussion. Perhaps there was no one else. Perhaps the Liberal Party
is stuck on this roundabout of mediocre leaders because they simply do not
have a better option. As a friend of mine remarked, the entire situation
is reminiscent of local council politics, where ‘Joe Smith’, who also owns
the local auto dealer, runs for office because of his concern about the kids
skateboarding in the local shopping centre, and is surprised when more is
asked of him once in office. Ted Baillieu fits this mould very well. Bruce
Guthrie in The Sunday Age described Baillieu as an “accidental leader”,
an innocent bystander who was destined to be Sports Minister but fell
into the role of Premier instead, through sheer happenstance. Whether
or not you agree with Guthrie’s view, it is mind boggling that this sort
of thing could occur at the State level of politics. How does someone
‘fall’ into leadership of the Opposition and then the position of Premier
of a state with more than 5 million citizens? If you do consider this to
be a true and accurate summation of the political situation in Victoria,
there is something seriously amiss that needs to be addressed in our
State’s political workings.Perhaps something more meaningful will be
delivered by Dr Napthine, or perhaps he won’t even be around for the
next election. Either way, Victoria certainly deserves and should demand
better governance.
